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Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part III

In the first two parts of this series, I expressed the practical consequences of Bayes’ theorem in terms or two informal principles: Principle I:All things being equal, the theory which predicts the a higher likelihood for the observed data is the theory most likely to be true. and: Principle II:All things are not equal because … Continue reading

Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part II

In my last post, I began to explain the practical implications of Bayes’ theorem in terms of simple principles. My first principle was this: Principle I:All things being equal, the theory which predicts the a higher likelihood for the observed data is the theory most likely to be true. Here is the second principle: Principle … Continue reading

Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part I

Ideal rational thinking is Bayesian, meaning that it is based on Bayes’ theorem. Bayes’ theorem tells us how to update our confidence in a theory based on our experiences. The theorem itself has a mathematical form, and its mathematical form can be intimidating to people who aren’t comfortable with algebra. In my classes on rational … Continue reading